Traders see near-even odds for a Cape Town minimum of 11–13 °C on October 12 because model guidance diverges on the strength of overnight radiative cooling under widespread cloud cover and light northwesterly winds. High humidity and a marine layer advected from the cold Benguela Current limit temperature drops, while patchy drizzle and reduced clear-sky periods further moderate the low. October climatology places the typical minimum near 13 °C; any break in cloud or lighter winds could allow readings to dip to 11 °C, whereas sustained overcast and stronger flow would hold the low closer to 13–14 °C. New model runs and official station observations will clarify the outcome before midnight.