Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Cape Town will experience clear skies and light southeasterly winds on September 29, supporting nocturnal radiative cooling that typically produces minimum temperatures near 11–14 °C under the region’s springtime high-pressure regime. This baseline reflects the moderating influence of the cold Benguela Current and average September climatology, where overnight lows rarely drop below 9 °C without an incoming cold front. Trader sentiment remains split near 50 % between sub-9 °C and 19 °C-plus outcomes because model runs still differ on exact wind speeds and boundary-layer moisture; calmer, drier conditions favor deeper cooling toward the lower bin while any increase in onshore flow or cloud would limit the drop. Updated SAWS and ECMWF guidance expected within 48 hours will likely resolve the narrow 11–13 °C range that currently carries the highest implied probabilities.