Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration project a minimum of 17°C for Chengdu on October 11, 2026, under partly cloudy conditions with light northeasterly winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with historical October lows averaging near 15–16°C while reflecting the specific synoptic pattern of mild advection and moderate humidity suppressing further drops. The 95% market-implied probability on 17°C captures this model consensus and recent observational trends. Cooler outcomes below 16°C would require clearer skies enhancing longwave radiation loss or an unexpected influx of continental air, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such shifts before resolution.