**Forecast consensus for Chengdu on September 26, 2026, centers on minimum temperatures near 21–22°C under mostly cloudy skies with high humidity and possible light showers or drizzle.** Official and commercial models, including those referenced by Chinese meteorological sources and international providers, project overnight lows in this range amid weak winds and persistent moisture, consistent with late-September transitional patterns before stronger cooling arrives after the 27th. Market-implied odds place the highest weight on 17°C or below (46%), followed by 21°C (29%) and 22°C (26.5%), reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, potential model spread, or localized cooling from precipitation and cloud cover rather than a shift in the baseline outlook. Historical September lows for the region typically fall in the high teens to low 20s°C, providing context for the current positioning. Updated model runs and any overnight observational data ahead of resolution will be key near-term drivers.