Current numerical weather prediction models, including those from Chinese meteorological sources and international ensembles, indicate a minimum temperature of 21–22°C in Chengdu on September 29 under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with light winds and moderate humidity. This aligns with the market-implied 45.5% probability for exactly 22°C, as reduced nighttime radiative cooling from cloud cover limits further drops below seasonal norms. Recent model consensus shows limited variability, though minor shifts in steering patterns or precipitation timing could adjust the overnight low by 1–2°C. Traders appear to weigh these stable short-range forecasts heavily against historical September minima near 18°C, while assigning secondary weight to the 27°C-or-higher and 17°C-or-below tails reflecting residual forecast uncertainty two days out.