**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show Chicago overnight lows for October 10 around 57–62°F, driven by a warm southerly flow ahead of a mild air mass and limited nocturnal cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies.** This places the expected minimum well above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 48.5°F for the date. Recent model runs emphasize continued advection of warmer air from the south, with daytime highs projected in the mid-70s to low 80s, reducing the diurnal temperature range. Trader consensus reflected in the elevated 49% implied probability for 72°F or higher captures uncertainty around potential forecast revisions or localized urban heat effects that could push the minimum upward, while the cluster of probabilities near 33% in the upper 50s to low 70s aligns with the central tendency of guidance and the low 5% odds for 53°F or below underscore the unlikelihood of significant cold-air intrusion before resolution. Updated NWS and ensemble guidance over the next 24 hours will be the key near-term catalyst.