Recent ensemble forecasts from regional and global models indicate overnight lows for Chongqing on September 26 centered in the low 20s °C, with notable spread due to variable cloud cover, light winds, and scattered showers that could enhance radiational cooling. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probability on 19 °C or below reflects weighting of cooler model members and recent downward revisions in minimum temperature guidance amid a transitional late-summer pattern. Historical September climatology for the region shows average lows near 22 °C, providing context for the current market-implied odds favoring modest cooling. Updated model runs and official briefings from monitoring agencies over the next 24 hours represent the key near-term catalysts likely to shift positioning ahead of resolution.