**Persistent rain and cloud cover from a regional weather pattern are keeping overnight lows in Chongqing near 21–23°C in the latest model consensus for September 29, creating tight market-implied odds between sub-17°C and 26°C+ outcomes.** Northeasterly flow and high humidity (often 90%+) limit radiational cooling in the Sichuan Basin, while scattered showers add uncertainty to exact minimum readings. Historical late-September baselines show typical lows around 22°C, but short-term model spreads on steering and precipitation timing explain the balanced trader sentiment. Updated NMC or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours will likely resolve the key variables of cloud persistence versus any clearer intervals.