Persistent southerly flow and elevated dew points near 60–65°F are limiting overnight radiative cooling across North Texas, anchoring model consensus for Dallas lows in the low-to-mid 70s on September 26. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs show partly to mostly cloudy skies with light southeast winds of 5–10 mph, conditions that reduce heat loss compared with clear, calm nights. This setup keeps the lowest temperature well above the late-September climatological average of 66°F while making the precise bucket—72–73°F versus 74–75°F—highly sensitive to small differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to those two ranges, with lower-probability colder outcomes requiring an unforecasted northerly shift or greater clearing that current observations and short-range models do not support.