Forecast uncertainty for Dallas minimum temperatures on September 30 centers on conflicting model signals for frontal passage timing and strength, producing near-even market-implied odds between sub-67°F and 86°F-plus outcomes. Recent National Weather Service guidance shows a potential early-season cold front interacting with lingering warm, moist air, while ensemble spreads highlight variability in overnight radiative cooling and cloud cover. Historical September lows average near 68°F, but this year's setup features above-normal Gulf moisture that could either suppress or enhance temperature drops depending on wind shifts and precipitation. Traders are monitoring updated model runs and NWS briefings for clearer resolution on whether the front arrives before or after the daily minimum.