**Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 5 centers on 19–23 °C, with 23 °C carrying the highest implied probability at 75 %.** Multiple forecast models show overnight lows in this band as a northerly flow and clearing skies promote radiational cooling after earlier monsoon moisture. Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs places the expected minimum near the long-term October average of roughly 22 °C, with limited downside risk below 19 °C given current dew points and wind speeds. Higher values above 24 °C remain improbable under the observed pressure gradient and reduced cloud cover. Resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour minimum recorded at Guangzhou stations once the full observational dataset is finalized.