Recent forecasts indicate a low-pressure system and frontal passage will bring widespread rain to Helsinki on October 9, with southerly winds initially advecting milder air before shifting westerly. This setup limits overnight radiative cooling under persistent cloud cover while increasing boundary-layer mixing, producing model consensus for a daily minimum near 7–8 °C. Historical October climatology shows typical lows around 5 °C, but current mild upstream conditions and sea-surface temperatures near 12 °C in the Baltic support the narrow spread between sub-6 °C and double-digit outcomes. Updated runs from global models will refine the exact timing of the wind shift and rainfall onset, directly affecting the resolution thresholds.