**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 25 centers on 27°C as the consensus outcome, driven by official short-range forecasts and climatological norms.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s nine-day outlook projects a minimum of 27°C under partly sunny conditions turning to squally showers and thunderstorms, while global models from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate indicate overnight lows near 26–27°C (roughly 79–81°F). These align with July’s historical average minima of 26–28°C, sustained by high humidity that restricts nighttime radiative cooling and typical southwest monsoon flow. Recent seasonal guidance from the Observatory reinforces normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026, with no strong cooling signals from ENSO or other indices. Scattered showers expected on the 25th could modestly suppress the low by enhancing cloud cover, keeping probabilities clustered around 26–27°C while leaving room for 1°C model shifts from wind or precipitation timing. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty band two days before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 25?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 25?
27°C 35%
26°C 31%
28°C 16%
25°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Jul 25, 2026
22°C or below
3%
23°C
1%
24°C
11%
25°C
14%
26°C
31%
27°C
35%
28°C
16%
29°C
11%
30°C
8%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 35%
26°C 31%
28°C 16%
25°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Jul 25, 2026
22°C or below
$32 Vol.
3%
23°C
$32 Vol.
1%
24°C
$11 Vol.
11%
25°C
$0 Vol.
14%
26°C
$0 Vol.
31%
27°C
$25 Vol.
35%
28°C
$56 Vol.
16%
29°C
$0 Vol.
11%
30°C
$11 Vol.
8%
31°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$21 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 25 centers on 27°C as the consensus outcome, driven by official short-range forecasts and climatological norms.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s nine-day outlook projects a minimum of 27°C under partly sunny conditions turning to squally showers and thunderstorms, while global models from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate indicate overnight lows near 26–27°C (roughly 79–81°F). These align with July’s historical average minima of 26–28°C, sustained by high humidity that restricts nighttime radiative cooling and typical southwest monsoon flow.
Recent seasonal guidance from the Observatory reinforces normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026, with no strong cooling signals from ENSO or other indices. Scattered showers expected on the 25th could modestly suppress the low by enhancing cloud cover, keeping probabilities clustered around 26–27°C while leaving room for 1°C model shifts from wind or precipitation timing. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty band two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$219End Date
Jul 25, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 25 centers on 27°C as the consensus outcome, driven by official short-range forecasts and climatological norms.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s nine-day outlook projects a minimum of 27°C under partly sunny conditions turning to squally showers and thunderstorms, while global models from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate indicate overnight lows near 26–27°C (roughly 79–81°F). These align with July’s historical average minima of 26–28°C, sustained by high humidity that restricts nighttime radiative cooling and typical southwest monsoon flow.
Recent seasonal guidance from the Observatory reinforces normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026, with no strong cooling signals from ENSO or other indices. Scattered showers expected on the 25th could modestly suppress the low by enhancing cloud cover, keeping probabilities clustered around 26–27°C while leaving room for 1°C model shifts from wind or precipitation timing. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty band two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$219End Date
Jul 25, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 25 centers on 27°C as the consensus outcome, driven by official short-range forecasts and climatological norms.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s nine-day outlook projects a minimum of 27°C under partly sunny conditions turning to squally showers and thunderstorms, while global models from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate indicate overnight lows near 26–27°C (roughly 79–81°F). These align with July’s historical average minima of 26–28°C, sustained by high humidity that restricts nighttime radiative cooling and typical southwest monsoon flow. Recent seasonal guidance from the Observatory reinforces normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026, with no strong cooling signals from ENSO or other indices. Scattered showers expected on the 25th could modestly suppress the low by enhancing cloud cover, keeping probabilities clustered around 26–27°C while leaving room for 1°C model shifts from wind or precipitation timing. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty band two days before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions