**The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for a 26°C low on October 11 reflects the Hong Kong Observatory’s official minimum temperature reading of exactly 26°C that day.** This outcome aligns with observed conditions under an anticyclone aloft and a gradually moderating northeast monsoon, which produced clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and minimal overnight cooling. Hourly data showed nighttime temperatures holding near 26°C before daytime heating pushed highs to around 31°C, consistent with climatological expectations for mid-October and recent model consensus. Only an unreported sensor anomaly or revised official summary could realistically alter the result at this late stage.