**Current forecasts for Hong Kong on October 4 indicate minimum temperatures most likely between 24–27°C, driven by the influence of a northeast monsoon bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderated overnight cooling.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects a 27–31°C range, while ensemble models and regional analyses show potential for slightly lower readings near 24–26°C under variable easterly flow and higher humidity that limits radiative heat loss. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 26–27°C reflects this narrow forecast spread, with lower odds on 25°C or below arising from uncertainty over shower timing and wind shifts that could enhance or suppress cooling. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key data points for resolution.