**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature near 23–24°C on October 7 under the influence of a dry northeast monsoon.** Clear to partly cloudy skies and light to moderate northeasterly winds promote strong nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs around 29–30°C, producing a large diurnal range typical of autumn monsoon conditions. Recent strengthening of the monsoon following an earlier cold front has lowered overnight minima to the low 20s°C in urban areas, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 23°C (49%) and 24°C (35.5%). Model consensus and historical analogs for early October support this range, while lower-probability extremes (below 20°C or 26°C+) would require unexpected changes in wind strength, cloud cover, or moisture. Updated HKO briefings and morning observations on October 6–7 will provide the final data for market resolution.