Forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF show Istanbul's overnight minimum on October 1 centering near 14–16°C amid northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h, surface pressure near 1023 hPa, and dew points around 11–12°C that limit radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. Slight disagreements in predicted cloud cover and shower timing create the narrow spread among 14°C, 15°C, and 16°C outcomes, with traders weighting recent hourly observations and ensemble consensus more heavily than single deterministic runs. Historical October averages near 16°C provide context, but current steering patterns and modest moisture advection introduce modest downside risk to 13°C or below if winds ease. Updated model runs and official station readings through evening will refine the final recorded low.