Current ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF point to a mild overnight low of 15–17°C in Istanbul on October 10 under clear skies and light southerly winds, which limit radiative cooling compared to typical October baselines. This consensus supports the near-even market split between 20°C or higher (49.0%) and 10°C or below (46.0%), as small shifts in wind speed, cloud cover, or model resolution can alter minimums by several degrees. Specific integer outcomes cluster around 33.5% each, reflecting trader recognition of forecast spread in high-resolution runs rather than a single deterministic path. Updated model guidance overnight will likely narrow resolution criteria for this time-sensitive market.