Traders see near-even odds between a 23°C-or-below minimum (47.5%) and 28–29°C readings (44%) because short-range models show high uncertainty in nocturnal cooling along the Red Sea coast. Clear skies and light northerly winds favor stronger radiational cooling that could drop Jeddah’s overnight low toward the mid-20s or below, while any increase in low-level moisture or a slight onshore breeze would limit the drop to the upper 20s. Seasonal transition from summer heat, combined with typical October variability in the region’s temperature inversions, keeps the distribution broad. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs plus local observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the implied probabilities ahead of the October 12 close.