Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models project overnight lows in Karachi around 26°C for October 3, driven by seasonal post-monsoon conditions featuring high humidity, light westerly winds, and minimal radiative cooling under mostly clear skies. This aligns with historical October averages near 25–27°C and explains trader emphasis on the 26°C outcome alongside uncertainty reflected in the 21°C-or-below bucket. Short-term model runs show little day-to-day variability through early October, though minor shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover could alter the minimum by 1–2°C before resolution.