**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 26–27°C for Karachi on September 28, supporting the leading 27°C market outcome at 49% implied probability.** Persistent southwest winds off the Arabian Sea, combined with high humidity (70–90%) and partly cloudy skies, are moderating overnight cooling and keeping readings aligned with September’s typical 25–26°C average low. Recent observations show overnight lows holding at 27–29°C amid stable post-monsoon conditions and no significant weather systems or cold-air advection. Traders appear to weigh the narrow band of model guidance against minor uncertainties in cloud cover and wind timing, while lower-probability cooler outcomes (22°C or below at 45%) reflect limited downside risk given the coastal thermal inertia.