Heavy monsoon rains and thunderstorms over Lucknow on September 25, driven by an active trough and northeasterly winds, have produced persistent cloud cover and humidity near 95-100%, suppressing radiative cooling overnight. Official IMD observations and forecasts from Lucknow Airport show a minimum near 22°C in the prior 24 hours, with models converging on 21-22°C amid 15-100 mm of rainfall. These conditions differentiate the closely matched 19-21°C outcomes by limiting further drops below 20°C, while any brief clearing could allow slightly lower readings. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty in the final recorded low before resolution.