Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature near 12°C in Madrid on October 12 under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and high pressure around 1018–1020 hPa, consistent with seasonal climatology where average lows reach about 11.6°C. These conditions support market-implied odds favoring mid-range outcomes around 12–14°C, while the elevated probability for 18°C or higher reflects residual uncertainty in model consensus and potential for warmer advection. Forecasters anticipate minimal overnight cooling with dew points near 8–10°C and low precipitation risk, though slight revisions in steering patterns could shift the exact low by 1–2°C before resolution.