Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and AEMET models indicate a frontal system bringing scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover to Madrid on October 2, moderating overnight radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered near 16°C. This setup contrasts with the climatological average low of roughly 13°C for early October, as persistent moisture and reduced clear-sky conditions limit temperature drops. Model consensus shows limited spread across the 13–18°C range, reflecting uncertainty in exact precipitation timing and wind patterns that could enhance or suppress cooling. Updated high-resolution runs and AEMET briefings on October 2 will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.