**Current model consensus from sources like GFS and regional forecasts points to a minimum temperature in Madrid around 18–20°C on September 27, driven by increasing cloud cover and lighter winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling.** Partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight, combined with dew points near 10–11°C and moderate humidity, reduce the potential for sharp drops below 18°C despite the high-elevation plateau location. Historical September 27 averages (low ~13.7°C) are cooler, but the current warm, stable pattern with highs near 28–30°C keeps the overnight floor elevated. Model spreads in timing of any weak easterly flow or cloud breaks create the near-even market split between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, with new high-resolution runs and updated guidance expected to refine the exact minimum before resolution.