Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international models converge on a minimum temperature of 13–15 °C for Mexico City on October 7, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. High-elevation terrain near 2,240 m normally allows stronger temperature drops, yet the moist airmass and 80–100 % cloud fractions narrow the diurnal range, keeping overnight lows above the drier-season climatology. Model runs differ slightly on the timing of heaviest rain and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–14 °C. Updated SMN guidance and real-time observations from the Valley of Mexico network will refine the final recorded minimum before resolution.