Current forecast guidance from NOAA and NHC models shows Miami overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s on October 3 amid persistent easterly flow, high humidity, and scattered showers that limit radiational cooling. This setup aligns with climatological norms for early October, when the average daily minimum sits near 75°F, though recent model runs exhibit modest spread tied to subtle variations in the subtropical ridge position. Trader sentiment reflected in the 50% implied probability for 71°F or below appears driven by historical precedent for occasional cooler intrusions and uncertainty around exact minimum timing, while the clustered mid-70s to low-80s bins capture the most likely range under stable conditions. Updated model runs and official NWS briefings expected over the next 48 hours represent the key data points that could shift resolution odds.