Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models project Milan’s October 3 overnight minimum near 16–18 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge with light easterly flow and partial cloud cover limiting radiational cooling. This places the expected low squarely between the market’s near-even 10 °C-or-below (50 %) and 20 °C-or-higher (49 %) brackets. Model spread of roughly ±2–3 °C arises from small differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any thin cloud deck, while climatological October minima average 10–12 °C; the current warm anomaly narrows the gap between the 16 °C and 11 °C outcomes that traders favor at 34–36 %. Updated model runs tonight will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.