Recent forecast model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show substantial spread for Moscow’s minimum temperature on October 10, with ensemble members split between Arctic air advection under a blocking high and milder Atlantic flow, keeping the 2 °C-or-below and 12 °C-or-higher outcomes nearly even at roughly 49 percent each. October’s transitional climatology features large day-to-day variability driven by the position of the polar jet and strengthening Siberian high, while local factors such as clear-sky radiational cooling versus increased cloud cover from passing lows further widen the range. Official guidance from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center highlights this uncertainty, with new model cycles expected in the next 24–48 hours likely to narrow or shift the distribution ahead of market resolution.