**The market's near-certain pricing on a lowest temperature of 6°C or below in Munich on October 1 reflects current observational data and high-resolution forecast models indicating significant overnight radiative cooling.** With daytime highs reaching the low-to-mid 20s°C under partly cloudy skies, temperatures are expected to fall sharply after sunset due to clear conditions, light winds, and dry air masses typical of early autumn in southern Bavaria. Numerical models such as GFS show minimums well below the 6°C threshold during the early morning hours, consistent with surface observations from stations like Munich Airport. This skin-in-the-game consensus accounts for the inherent uncertainty range in boundary-layer forecasts while noting that only an unexpected warm advection or measurement anomaly at the official reporting site could alter the outcome before resolution.