Current forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate radiative cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds will drive Qingdao’s overnight minimum below 15°C on October 8, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 100% market-implied probability for that outcome. Recent observational trends show daytime highs near 22–24°C giving way to rapid evening temperature drops, aligning with climatological patterns for early October in coastal Shandong. Model agreement remains strong, though inherent forecast uncertainty means a modest warm-air advection or station-specific microclimate effect could push the official low above the threshold. Updated guidance from monitoring services ahead of the overnight period will provide the final data for resolution.