Recent GFS and ensemble model runs indicate partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds overnight into October 8, supporting radiative cooling that favors a minimum near 17–19 °C under clear to scattered conditions following daytime heating. Trader consensus clusters around the 15–20 °C bins because small differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover timing, and urban heat-island effects can shift the exact low by 1–2 °C. Elevated 23 °C+ odds reflect residual uncertainty from earlier warm-advection scenarios, yet current guidance and historical October climatology for São Paulo place the most probable range in the upper teens, with fresh model updates expected to tighten resolution criteria before market close.