Current National Weather Service and model guidance point to a Seattle minimum temperature near 51°F on October 4, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly flow, and radiational cooling under partly to mostly clear skies following a mild, dry weekend. This places the low slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 49.2°F for the date, with limited cold-air advection from the Pacific maintaining above-normal readings. Traders appear to assign notable implied probability to cooler outcomes near or below 45°F, likely reflecting residual model spread or potential for clearer skies to enhance overnight cooling. Key upcoming inputs include updated NWS forecast discussions and morning soundings that could refine the low before resolution.