Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Seattle points to clearing skies overnight into September 26 after Friday's showers, promoting radiative cooling and advection of cooler Pacific air. This setup favors a daily minimum in the mid-40s, aligning with the market's leading 48-49°F bin at 48.5% implied probability and supporting elevated odds on 46-47°F and 41°F or below. Ensemble spreads reflect typical autumn variability and minor model differences in boundary-layer moisture, while the historical average low near 51°F and record low of 39°F provide context for the current cooler-than-normal signal without extreme outliers. Updated forecast runs and surface observations through Friday evening will refine the exact threshold.