Recent forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate a low in the mid-40s°F for Seattle on September 26 following frontal passage and clearing skies on the 25th, with trader odds clustered near 46–50% across the 41–55°F ranges reflecting model spread in overnight radiational cooling. Clear or partly cloudy conditions promote efficient longwave radiation loss from the surface, while light winds and dry marine air from the Pacific allow temperatures to drop further than under overcast or onshore flow. Key variables differentiating close bins include exact cloud timing, dewpoint depression, and Puget Sound moderation, which can limit the low by 2–4°F compared to inland valleys. Updated NWS model runs tonight will likely sharpen resolution ahead of the overnight minimum.