Recent weather model runs show Seattle's overnight low on September 30 centered near 50–52°F under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow following Tuesday showers, placing the most likely minimum in the middle buckets. The near-even split between the 45°F-or-below and 64°F-or-higher outcomes reflects residual uncertainty in how quickly radiational cooling develops if skies clear earlier than expected versus lingering marine moisture or stronger onshore winds that could hold temperatures several degrees higher. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble means currently favor the 50–52°F range, consistent with late-September climatology, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed could still move the realized minimum across resolution thresholds before the period ends.