Recent forecast consensus from Chinese meteorological sources and international models points to a September 28 low near 23–24°C in Shanghai, driven by persistent cloud cover, light-to-heavy rain, and northeasterly winds advecting cooler maritime air that limits nighttime radiative cooling. These conditions align with the market’s leading 24°C outcome at 45.5% implied probability, followed by 25°C and 23°C, reflecting trader assessment of model agreement and historical late-September baselines around 20–22°C under clearer skies. Upcoming official updates from the China Meteorological Administration could shift odds if rain timing or wind strength changes.