**Short-term forecast models indicate substantial uncertainty in nocturnal cooling for Shenzhen on October 1, with ensemble runs showing minimum temperatures clustered near 25–28 °C amid persistent subtropical warmth and high humidity.** This near-even split between the 23 °C-or-below and 33 °C-or-higher outcomes reflects traders pricing in variable cloud cover and light winds that modulate radiative heat loss, alongside possible weak frontal influences or lingering moisture from the East Asian monsoon transition. Historical climatology places early-October nighttime lows around 23–25 °C, yet current sea-surface temperatures near 28 °C and a strong subtropical ridge support elevated baselines. The next 48-hour model updates from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles will likely resolve the narrow temperature band, as even modest changes in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any showers can shift the overnight minimum by 2–3 °C.