Recent model consensus from sources including the Central Weather Administration and international forecasts points to mostly clear skies and light winds over Taipei through September 28, supporting overnight radiative cooling that should produce a minimum near 24 °C. This places the outcome squarely in the middle temperature buckets currently priced around 20 % each. The near-even split between the 20 °C-or-below and 30 °C-or-higher contracts reflects residual model spread in boundary-layer moisture and possible thin high-cloud effects that could raise or lower the minimum by a degree or two. With only 48 hours until resolution, the next GFS and ECMWF runs will be the key catalysts likely to tighten the distribution around the current 23–25 °C range.