Official forecasts for Taipei on September 30 project overnight minimum temperatures of 25–27°C under subtropical high pressure, light variable winds, and high humidity that limits radiative cooling. Multiple model runs converge on a low near 26°C, aligning with the market’s highest-implied probability at that level, while slight differences in boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover create the close contest with cooler outcomes around 21°C. Historical September minima for the city average near 24–26°C, providing context for the tight clustering. New observational data and final model updates overnight will determine whether the actual recorded low falls inside or outside the leading bin.