Recent forecast models from Environment Canada and global ensembles indicate a northwest flow will deliver clear to mostly clear conditions over Toronto on October 6, 2026, with overnight lows likely reaching 6–9 °C under dry, radiational cooling. This represents a modest departure below the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 9.7 °C for the date. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 10 °C-or-higher outcome at 48.5 % implied probability appears driven by remaining model spread and the potential for slightly warmer boundary-layer mixing, while the clustered probabilities around 3–9 °C capture the most likely range. Zero or below remains discounted at 2.5 % given current steering patterns and lack of Arctic air. Updated runs from the GFS and Canadian models over the next 24–48 hours will refine the minimum before resolution.