Official forecasts from Environment Canada project clear skies and light northeast winds for Toronto on September 26, supporting a minimum near 9°C overnight, while other models show lows of 11–12°C. This range aligns with trader emphasis on the 11°C outcome at 42.5% implied probability, ahead of broader bins like 16°C or higher. Differentiating factors include radiational cooling under clear conditions versus any residual cloud cover or wind that could moderate the drop, plus typical urban heat island effects in downtown stations. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum from official observations, updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning represent the key near-term data points that could shift consensus.