Current forecast models from Environment Canada and others indicate overnight lows near 13–15°C for Toronto on September 29, driven by partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and limited radiational cooling under a building ridge. This places the expected minimum well above the 8°C threshold yet below typical late-September highs, with model runs showing modest spread due to variable cloud cover and frontal timing. Historical averages near 11°C provide context, but the near-term pattern favors milder conditions, leaving the 45–50% market-implied odds on boundary outcomes reflective of remaining forecast uncertainty ahead of final model updates.