Recent forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 9–10°C for Warsaw on October 11, driven by persistent cloud cover, moderate southwesterly winds, and limited radiative cooling overnight. These conditions, following a mild early October period several degrees above the long-term average, support market-implied odds clustering around single-digit to low-teen Celsius outcomes. The elevated 49% implied probability on 13°C or higher reflects lingering model spread and potential for localized variations, while the low 8.5% on 3°C or below aligns with the absence of strong high-pressure systems or clear skies that would enable greater cooling. Polish Institute of Meteorology updates and final station readings will resolve the market.