Recent model consensus points to clear skies and light southerly winds over Warsaw on October 3, promoting strong nocturnal radiative cooling that could drop the overnight minimum into single digits Celsius. High-pressure dominance and dry air mass advection from the southeast have kept recent nights cooler than seasonal averages, with current runs showing projected lows clustered between roughly 6–10 °C. Ensemble spread remains notable, however, as small differences in cloud cover timing or boundary-layer moisture could shift the minimum by several degrees in either direction. Traders therefore assign nearly equal implied probabilities to sub-4 °C and 13 °C-plus outcomes, reflecting the narrow margin between typical early-autumn radiative losses and any modest warm-air advection or increased mixing. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.