Current high-pressure conditions and clear skies over Warsaw are promoting strong radiational cooling overnight, with official forecasts showing September 28 minimum temperatures near 9–12°C under light southeasterly winds and low humidity. This setup creates genuine uncertainty around exact lows, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind mixing, or advection from warmer air masses can alter the outcome by several degrees. Historical late-September baselines average around 9–10°C, yet model spreads keep the 5°C-or-below and 15°C-or-higher outcomes nearly even in trader pricing, reflecting the sensitivity of nocturnal boundary-layer processes just 24 hours before resolution.