Recent model runs from European forecasting centers indicate a stable high-pressure regime over central Europe through September 29, favoring clear or partly cloudy skies that enhance nocturnal radiative cooling and could push Warsaw's minimum into single digits Celsius. However, the near-even market split between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer details, including exact wind speeds, dew-point depression, and potential for subtle warm advection from the southeast. Historical late-September minima average near 10°C, with clear-night drops of 8–12°C from daytime highs the dominant control. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the nocturnal minimum forecast and resolve much of the current trader divergence.