Recent forecast models for Wuhan point to a minimum temperature on October 2 in the 15–17°C range, driven by persistent cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and northerly winds that limit radiative cooling overnight while advecting slightly cooler air. These conditions align with the seasonal transition in the Yangtze River valley, where early-October lows typically average near 14–16°C. Model consensus remains broad because small differences in rain timing, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture can shift the overnight low by 1–2°C. Traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities across the 12–19°C buckets, reflecting this narrow but genuine uncertainty ahead of the final observational data.