McDonald's Q3 2026 global comparable sales rose 1.5%, landing squarely in the 1%–2% range that commands 99.6% implied probability on Polymarket. International operated markets contributed 1.4% growth, led by Germany and Australia, while developmental licensed markets advanced 4.2%, supported by Japan; these gains more than offset a 0.2% U.S. decline driven by softer traffic that was partially mitigated by higher average checks. The result exceeded analyst consensus estimates of roughly 1.3% and aligned with company guidance, reinforcing trader confidence in the outcome ahead of any final resolution. Only a rare post-earnings restatement or material revision to reported figures would shift probabilities outside the current band.