Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) holds an 88% implied probability in the Minas Gerais governor market after consistent leads in late-September polling. Recent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel show him at 37–40% in the first round, well ahead of Patrus Ananias (PT) at 15–31% and lower shares for Alexandre Kalil (PDT), incumbent Mateus Simões (PSD), and Flávio Roscoe (PL). Second-round simulations place Azevedo 12–34 points ahead of main challengers. His advantage stems from strong name recognition as a sitting senator, active interior campaigning on security and health infrastructure, and a stable coalition. With the October 4 first round approaching, the narrow window limits opportunities for major shifts, though undecided voters and turnout patterns remain key variables.